2025/06/15 - Moderate US inflation, Improving consumer sentiment, Stabilizing JGB market

US consumer prices rise moderately; tariffs expected to fan inflation

기사 출처: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-may-2025-06-11/

- United States May CPI  +2.4%(YoY), forecaset +2.5%, April +2.3% / +0.1%(MoM), forecaset +0.2%, April +0.2% 

- United States May Core - CPI +2.8%(YoY), forecaset +2.9%, April +2.8% / +0.1%(MoM), forecaset +0.3%, April +0.2% 

- Economists say inflation has been slow to respond to President Trump's sweeping tariffs as most retailers are still selling merchandise accumulated before the import duties took effect

- Walmart said it would start raising prices in late May and June. Inflation was also being curbed by slower price rises for services, including subdued airline fares. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next Wednesday, with financial markets optimistic of a resumption in monetary policy easing in September.

 

US consumer sentiment improves; tariff anxiety lingers

기사 출처: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-sentiment-improves-june-2025-06-13/

 

- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 60.5 in June (up from 52.2 in May)

- This is the first increase in six months and well above market expectations (forecast was 53.5)

- However, the index is still 20% lower than December 2024, when sentiment surged after Trump's election win

- 12-month inflation expectations: → Fell to 5.1% from 6.6%

- Long-run expectations: → Down slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%

- Economists say current low inflation is likely due to businesses selling older inventory bought before the tariffs

- FRB to keep central bank rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on this weekf FOMC

 

Japan issues rare warnings on bond market in policy roadmap

기사 출처: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-issues-rare-warnings-bond-market-policy-roadmap-2025-06-13/

 - Japan’s annual economic and fiscal policy guidelines explicitly flagged rising JGB (Japanese Government Bond) yields and shifting investors—marking a rare official alert

- A triple shock is driving volatility:

  1. BOJ is tapering its bond-buying program 

  2. Life insurers are pulling back demand 

  3. Mounting concerns over Japan’s high public debt

- Measures to stabilize JGB yield by the government

1. Introduce floating-rate JGBs tied to short-term rates.
2. Expand retail-targeted bonds to non-profits and smaller companies.
3. Buy back some low-yield, long-term bonds to rebalance supply-demand dynamics

- The BOJ, which currently holds ~46% of JGBs, may slow tapering further from next fiscal year. Intending to avoid abrupt disruptions

- JGB 30yr Yield: 2.788%

- JGB 10yr Yield: 1.403%

- JGB 3yr Yield: 0.786%

 

Song of Eternity, Whanki Kim

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USD/KRW exchange rate: 1,366.85원

USD/JPY exchange rate: 144.10엔

USD/CNY exchange rate: 7.1816위안

CNY/KRW exchange rate: 190.33원

DXY: 98.18

 

US Treasury 30Y yield: 4.899%

US Treasury 10Y yield: 4.406%

US Treasury 2Y yield: 3.949%

 

KTB 30Y yield: 2.722%

KTB 10Y yield: 2.820%

KTB 3Y yield: 2.456%