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2026/02/20 - 일본 금융시장이라 정책변수

Ushuaia_Dreams — Fri, 20 Feb 2026 16:35:22 +0900

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https://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=4398626

[정지서의 조곤조곤] 日 환율·금리 주시하는 청와대 - 연합인포맥스

청와대가 일본의 외환·채권 시장을 바라보는 분위기가 심상찮다. 얼마 전 일본 중의원 선거에서 자민당 다카이치 사나에 총리가 이끄는 집권 여당이 압승을 거두면서, 이른바 '사나에노믹스'라

news.einfomax.co.kr

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[매크로] Taiwan Life Insurers in the Korean FX Market

Ushuaia_Dreams — Sun, 18 Jan 2026 22:35:57 +0900

Sharp drop in the USD/KRW exchange rate in 2025 May was suspected to be triggered by Taiwan Life Insurerer's proxy hedge. Taiwan Life insurerers have been actively trading in the USD/KRW market since late 2010s. And when there has been volatility in the KRW market for example at May or Dec. in 2025, they were always involved.

Panic spread through Taiwan, prompting massive sell-off of USD which led to a sudden appreciation of the TWD. Although causes remain unclear, it has highlighted the colossal amount of foreign financial assets accumulated by Taiwan, totalling $1 trillion, which is 200% of its GDP. Life insurance companies hold more than $700 billion, primarily in U.S. bonds (Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds). Their hedging needs are met by the Central Bank of China (CBC), which provides them with dollars from its substantial FX reserves through currency swaps.

Over the years, lifers became lax (to become loose, careless, or not strict enough), accumulating risks: $200 billion in foreign bonds are uncovered, representing 25% of Taiwan's GDP. Their solvency relied on a fragile balance, particularly on the belief that the CBC would never allow TWD to appreciate. Life insurers have recorded significant potential losses, which may worsen if U.S. interest rates continue to rise and the greenback weakens.

USD/TWD exchange rate from Jan. 2024

USD/KRW exchange rate from Jan. 2024

UST 10yr yield index from Jan. 2024

TWD suddenly appreciated 4% against USD. Massive USD sales by exporting companies aiming to secure their profits amid rumors that the CBC would cease to guarantee the exchange rate of the USD/TWD. Panic also gripped life insurers who massively sold USD out of fear of a currency mismatch between their assets and liabilities.

Since the early 2000s, Taiwan's current account balance rapidly increased, reaching nearly 15% of its GDP in 2014. This led to the accumulation of foreign currencies, notably U.S. dollars, housed in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Central Bank of China (CBC) decided to redirect a portion of these reserves to life insurance companies, a significant sector in Taiwan’s economy that represents 60% of its GDP. Massive issuance of “Formosa Bonds” resulted in Taiwan's foreign financial assets reaching $1 trillion, equivalent to 200% of the country's GDP.

Strong dependency on the USD for Taiwan

The CBC uses a portion of its FX reserves to provide currency financing or hedging to lifers. CBC employs currency swaps: the CBC exchanges foreign currencies for TWD, and the lifers exchange these TWD for foreign currencies, which they then invest abroad.

This mechanism has also helped mitigate fluctuations in its currency on the FX market, particularly by curbing its appreciation against the US dollar. (TWD를 안 사도 되게 해주는 시스템으로 이해함..대만 중앙은행이 계속 쌓여가는 외화 자산을 보험사한테 쉽게 넘기니깐??) Through this swap mechanism, Taiwan's FX reserves have not increased, allowing the country to avoid being classified under "monitoring" by the US Treasury for currency manipulation. However, CBC disclosed its positions in currency derivatives for the first time in 2020.

Mismatch in Currency between Assets and Liabilities

Taiwanese consumers preferred life insurance policies that pay in local currency rather than in USD. Taiwanese life insurers primarily fund themselves in TWD, even though their investments are increasingly denominated in USD.

- Currency Risk: weak USD would lead to significant losses due to the substantial foreign currency mismatch between assets and liabilities.

- Hedging Cost: primary cost impacting the profitability of life insurance companies. Selling USD forward can protect life insurers from spot rate fluctuations, but maintaining these positions can be costly.

- Interest Rate Risk: rapid increase in U.S. interest rates can lead to significant losses on their bond portfolios.

Lifers have hedged their portfolios only partially. Only half of their currency mismatch between assets and liabilities has been hedged. In the event of real losses, lifers can absorb them with their shareholders' equity. However, Taiwanese life insurers are less capitalized than their Japanese counterparts, as demonstrated in the bottom chart.

Less capitalized, therefore hard to absorb loss using own equity

NDF Market in the contagion to other Asian Currencies

Hedges by NDF are settled in USD abroad, exempting lifers from securing financing in local currency when needed. Taiwan's FX market is narrow, and the regulator prohibits companies and financial institutions in the country from trading TWD in the NDF market. To circumvent this restriction and hedge their foreign currency investments, Taiwanese life insurers use so-called "proxy" currencies like the KRW. The South Korean economy shares similarities with that of Taiwan, as both are heavily dependent on exports focused on similar industries, such as electronic components and semiconductors. Taiwanese life insurers, driven by panic, rushed to cover their uncovered dollar exposures on the NDF market, this led to the sudden appreciation of the KRW. (즉, 헷지하지 않은 달러 자산이 너무 많았기에 헷지하기 위해 TWD, KRW 대량 매수했다는거..?)

Proxy Currencies rapid Appreciation

Taipei

sdfasfas

FICC 트레이딩 인턴십을 마치며

Ushuaia_Dreams — Sun, 18 Jan 2026 11:13:46 +0900

정말 감사하게도 외은 트레이딩팀에서 인턴으로 6개월간 일할 수 있는 기회가 있었다. 개인적인 이유로 외은 트레이더가 되고 싶었던

트레이딩

인텁십을 통해 내가 부족한 부분을 알 수 있었다. 지식적인 부분에서는 매크로 뷰가 없음을 깨달았다.

게다가 그 외에는 부족한 인턴이었고

[FICC] 국고채 바이백, 통안채, 외평채 등등

Ushuaia_Dreams — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 22:16:33 +0900

국고채 바이백 (Buy Back)

채권 바이백(Buy-back)이란 채권 발행자가 시장에서 해당 발행 채권을 사들여 만기 전에 미리 돈을 지급하는 것을 의미한다.

원래 국채의 발행 목적이 국가사업을 위한 자금조달 목적으로 발행되는 것인데, 바이백용 국고채라는 것은 국채 발행의 목적이 오로지 만기가 아직 돌아오지 않은 다른 국채를 매입하는 데에만 있는 경우를 의미한다.

다른 파생상품과 비교하자면, 롤오버 같은 성격이라고 생각하면 편할 것이다.

이렇게 발행되어 들어온 돈은 다시 국채를 매입하는데에 쓰이므로 전체적으로 채권의 물량에는 큰 변화가 없다.

다만 만기 도래시 소멸되는 물량이 그대로 유지된다는 점에서는 수급적으로 유동성을 유지하는 역할을 할 수 있다.

예를 들어, 정부에 초과세수가 발생하였다면 정부가 국고채 바이백을 통해 국채 상환을 하면 정부의 부채가 줄어들고 재정 건전성이 강화된다.

정부가 바이백을 하는 이유

1. 국채 유동성을 높이기 위하여. 예) 기준금리가 오르면서, 기존 발행된 국채는 상대적으로 수요가 없어진다. 다들 새로 발행된 국채만 기다리는데 그래서 정부는 기존 발행된 국채를 사줄 사람을 계속 찾다가 차라리 스스로 바이백을 하려고 한다.

2. 채권 금리 급등 상황을 진정시키려는 시장 안정 조치

국고채 바이백의 효과

1. 국채 유동성이 높아진다. 정부가 기존 채권을 사서 시장에 유동성을 공급하면 은행은 그 돈으로 새로 발행된 국채를 사서 가격을 올리고(=수익률 하락) 경제시장 안정화를 달성.

2. 채권 금리가 안정화 된다

지표물과 비지표물

정책 리스크 확대로 앞날을 예측하기 어려워지며 지표물의 유동성 프리미엄이 상승. 시장참가자들이 리스크를 회피하기 위해 대응이 비교적 쉽고 장내 거래가 활발한 지표물을 선호한다. 빠른 대응 가능한 지표물이나 장내 거래가 활발한 채권 선호현상이 나타난다. 금리 인상기에는 크레딧 채권 매도가 쉽지 않다. 또한, 국고/통안채가 강세를 나타낼 때도 크레딧이 강세를 잘 못 따라가는 경우도 있다. AA- 등급 회사채 3Y 대비 국고채 3Y 스프레드가 벌어지는 경우가 이렇게 잘 못 따라가는 상황..

개별 채권의 유동성에 따라 채권시장에는 지표물(benchmark bond)과 비지표물(non-benchmark bond)의 구분이 있다. 지표물은 가장 거래가 활발하고, 사자와 팔자의 호가 차이가 거의 없기 때문에 환금성이 뛰어나다. 반면 비지표물은 지표물만큼 거래가 활발하지도 못하고, 사자와 팔자의 호가 차이가 많이 나기 때문에 환금성이 낮다. 이 때문에 지표물은 유동성에 대한 대가(Liquidity Premium)가 따라붙어, 비지표물보다 채권가격이 높다(금리가 낮다). 그래서 지표물과 비지표물 사이에 나타나는 금리차는 어느 정도까지는 극히 정상적인 것이라 할 수 있다.

지표물과 비지표물 사이의 구분은 당발물과 경과물 사이의 구분과는 다른 개념이다. 미국 채권시장에서는 당발물(가장 최근에 발행된 채권, on-the-run issue)이 지표물이 되고, 경과물(당발물이 발행되기 이전에 발행된 채권, off-the-run issue)이 비지표물이 된다. 그러나 우리나라에서는 가장 최근에 발행되었다고 해서 그 채권이 지표물이 되는 것은 아니다.

3년만기 국고채 장외시장을 보면, 지난해 8월에 발행된 '국고채권 2000-12'가 오랫동안 지표물 역할을 했다. 11월에 '국고채권 2000-15'가 발행되기는 했지만, 이 채권은 발행되자마자 비지표물이 됐다. 2000-12호는 발행규모가 2조 4천억원에 달했지만, 2000-15호는 발행규모가 1조 850억원에 불과하여 거래에 필요한 충분한 물량공급이 되지 못했기 때문이다. 그러나 최근에 발행된 '국고채권2001-1'은 현재까지의 발행규모가 7,500억원에 불과하지만, 앞으로 물량공급이 확대될 것이라는 기대 때문에 지표물 위치를 차지하고 있다.

결국 우리나라에서 한 채권이 지표채권이 되느냐 아니냐는 언제 발행되었느냐, 발행규모가 거래에 적합할 정도로 많으냐, 그리고 채권시장의 '큰손'들이 선호하느냐 등에 따라 결정된다고 할 수 있다. 반면 미국 국채는 발행 회차마다 발행량의 편차가 그리 심하지 않고, 또 '큰손'이 뚜렷이 부각되지 못할 만큼 많은 시장 참가자들이 있기 때문에, 지표물과 비지표물의 구분은 언제 발행되었느냐에 의해서만 결정될 수 있는 것이다. (당발물 and 경과물)

일본 채권시장에서 지표물과 비지표물의 구분도 우리와 비슷했다고 한다. 10년 만기 일본국채는 정례적으로 발행됨에도 불구하고, 80년대에 어떤 채권은 1년 10개월간 지표물 역할을 했는가 하면, 또다른 채권은 불과 2개월만에 지표물 자리에서 물러나기도 했다고 한다. 일본의 80년대 국채시장을 설명한 다음의 인용문은 거의 대부분이 현재 우리나라 채권시장에 그대로 나타나고 있다.

참고 기사: https://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=3456870

출처: https://blog.naver.com/cbds89ch/70113191277

KIDB 민평표

민평표를 보면 지표물일 수록 금리가 더 높은 것을 알 수 있다. 지표물은 유동성에 대한 대가(Liquidity Premium)가 따라붙어, 비지표물보다 채권가격이 높다(금리가 낮다)라고 인터넷 자료에서 배웠는데 신기하게 민평표에서는 지표물이 비지표물보다 모든게 금리가 더 낮다... 오히려 유동성 프리미엄이 지표물에 붙은걸까?

통화안정증권, 통안채

통화안정증권(통안, 9통 등등..) MSB, Monetary Stabilization Bond

통화안정증권은 한국은행이 시중 통화량을 조절하기 위해 발행하는 채무증권이다. 「한국은행법」 제 69조 및 「한국은행통화안정증권법」에 의거 한국은행이 금융기관 등을 대상으로 발행한다.

시중의 과잉 유동성으로 콜 금리가 한은의 목표수준에 미치지 못하면 통화안정증권을 발행하여 시중 통화량을 흡수한다. 또 콜 금리가 한은 목표수준을 상회하여 시중자금이 부족할 경우에는 통화안정증권을 매입하여 시장에 유동성을 공급한다.

통화안정증권은 14일물, 28일물, 63일물, 91일물, 182일물, 364일물, 546일물, 1년물, 1.5년물, 2년물 등으로 구성되어 있고(정례입찰 대상종목은 28일물, 91일물, 1년물, 2년물 총 4종), 발행한도는 총통화(M2)의 50%로 설정되어 있다. (한도의 결정은 금융통화위원회의 결정사항이며, 실상 본원통화의 한도가 없기 때문에 통화안정증권의 제한도 없다고 봐야 한다.)

1년물, 1.5년물, 2년물은 표면이자율에 따라 이자를 정기적으로 지급하는 이표채로 발행되며, 그 외의 만기물은 액면금액에서 상환일까지의 이자를 미리 공제하는 할인채 형태로 발행된다.

퉁화량 조절 수단으로 우리나라에서는 통화안정증권과 환매조건부채권이 활용되는데 환매조건부채권은 초단기 유동성 조절에 활용되는 반면, 통화안정증권은 단기 및 중기 유동성 조절 수단으로 이용된다.

국채를 통화관리 수단으로 활용하는 선진국과 달리 우리나라는 과거 재정흑자기조의 지속과 재정건전화 정책으로 국채시장이 제대로 발달하지 못해 통화관리 수단으로 통화안정증권이 발행되어 활용되었다.

정부의 재정적자 보전 등을 위해 발행되는 국채와 달리 통화안정증권은 환율의 안정적 운용, 금리 및 물가안정 등을 위해 한국은행이 시중 통화량을 조절할 목적으로 발행된다.

국채는 정부가 이자비용을 부담하고 그 잔액이 국가채무로 기록되지만 통화안정증권은 한국은행이 채무자로 이자비용을 부담한다.

국채는 국회의 승인을 받아 발행되지만, 통화안정증권은 발행한도가 통화량에 연계되어 있어 실질적인 구속력이 약하다.

통화안정증권은 통화량 조절수단으로, 이는 원칙적으로 국채를 이용한 공개시장조작(Open Market Operation)으로 대체할 수 있다. (향후 앞으로 그렇게 될 확률이 크다.)

국채시장이 발달이 미흡하여 공개시장조작을 수행할 수 있는 여건을 갖추지 못한 개발도상국에서는 통화량 조절 등의 목적으로 중앙은행이 채무증권을 발행 (중국, 홍콩, 인도네시아, 칠레 등: 환율 절상 압력 완화와 외환보유고 확충을 목적으로 한다)

금융위기 이후 한국은행의 금융기관 지원과 외환보유고 확충에 대한 필요성이 높아진 것도 통화안정증권 발행이 확대된 이유가 된다. 한국산업은행과 정책금융공사를 통한 금융기관의 자본확충 지원, 총액대출한도의 확대 등이 이루어지면서 시중유동성을 환수하기 위해 통화안정증권 발행이 늘어났고, 금융위기 이전에는 외환보유고 유지에 따른 기회비용 문제가 제기되었으나, 금융위기 발발 이후에는 어느정도 비용이 수반 되더라도 외환보유고를 충분히 확충할 필요성에 대한 인식이 확산되었다..

출처: https://blog.naver.com/cbds89ch/70114524802

2025/12/19 - Finally BOJ rate hikes to 0.75%

Ushuaia_Dreams — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:49:20 +0900

Japan

• The decision statement describes rates as “at significantly low levels,” even as they edge toward the BOJ’s 1% estimate for the lower bound of neutral. That suggests the bank now sees neutral as higher, giving it room to tighten further.

• The BOJ conveyed a clear willingness to keep raising rates. It released an referential note that lay out three drivers behind Friday’s move: reduced uncertainty around the US economy and trade policy, expectations for solid wage gains next year, and a rise in underlying inflation as firms pass on higher labor costs. The message: the BOJ is more confident that its price outlook will be achieved.

[Why the BOJ Hiked on Friday?]

Ueda pointed to a stronger assessment of domestic and global conditions as the backdrop for the move.

On Japan, he highlighted corporate-profit upgrades in the Tankan and said uncertainty around US tariffs had eased. Ueda said some board members cautioned that higher import prices — driven by the recent yen weakness — could pass through to underlying inflation.
On the US, Ueda said downside risks had faded, thanks to firm consumer spending and AI-related capex. He added that China’s slowdown is unlikely to tip into a deeper slump due to policy support.

[The Rate Path Ahead]

As we had anticipated, Ueda offered no explicit guidance on the rate path, repeating that decisions will depend on economic and market developments.

• He said the BOJ will assess how the new rate affects the economy, inflation, and lending conditions. That aligns with our view that the next hike will not come quickly — and is unlikely before July.

• That said, we see that he is confident of achieving the central bank’s inflation target in the medium term. He forecasted that headline CPI may dip below 2% next year due to base effects from the food-price surge earlier this year. But he stressed that the impact on underlying inflation would be limited as the wage-price cycle would continue to build.

[The Neutral-Rate Debate]

Ueda fielded numerous questions on the neutral rate. His core message: “We won’t know until we get there.”

• Some markets had anticipated an update to the BOJ’s neutral-rate estimate. But it refrained from it, and Ueda even appeared to have downplayed the importance of statistically derived estimates, indicating that observed economic responses after rate hikes carry greater weight.

• He offered two reasons for keeping the phrase “significantly low” in the statement, both of which have nudged markets toward a higher view of the neutral rate.

o First, he emphasized that 1% is only the lower end. With about a quarter of Bloomberg-surveyed economists putting neutral at 1%, downplaying that level sends a mildly hawkish signal.

o Second, he observed that even after the shift from negative rates, the tightening effect on the economy and financial conditions has been limited. This shows the BOJ is willing to adjust rates according to its assessment of the economy rather than be constrained by neutral-rate estimates.

• It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the board’s views of the neutral rate is drifting higher. Since Ueda broached the 1%–2.5% range in January, inflation expectations have risen. The BOJ also pointed to signs of improving real productivity in the April’s outlook report (Box 2 in the report).

[Market Reaction]

After the policy release, JGB yields rose while the yen weakened against the dollar. The conflicting move likely reflects the markets’ dovish reading of the BOJ’s comments - which they think point to a slow adjustment path of its policy rate and higher inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, that interpretation could flip, in our view. As long as yen weakness and sticky CPI inflation persist at higher than 2% — and coordination with the government remains smooth — the BOJ is likely to proceed with further tightening.

• Ueda stressed at his press conference that the central bank has had close communication with the government. If Takaichi — while seen as reluctant for the BOJ to tighten BOJ — view yen weakness and inflation as political liabilities, she could easily greenlight additional hikes.

2025/12/20 - December FOMC 25bp rate cut

Ushuaia_Dreams — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:49:10 +0900

United States

Reserve management purchases(RMP) is the term the Fed is using to describe its T-bill buying agenda, as in fact they can go out as far as 3 years in Treasuries if needed. That’s quite deviant from a pure T- bills buying program, and bordering in fact on QE. They’ll start with $40bn of buying, and suggest it will wane in later months due to seasonal liquidity circumstances. Good for the front end!

US Money Market has always experienced severe fluctuation in liquidity every April due to federal tax payments. Powell said at the press conference “When tax payment day comes, because people pay big money to the government, reserve amount declines rapidly.” This can be seen as front loading to stabilize the reserve amount.

In the past, at 2019 Repo Tantrum, the Fed has bought T-bills to stabilize the market stacking enough reserves..

Even after easing cycle started last September longer yield of UST has not climbed down from its level. Federal rate went from 5.5% to 3.75% however 10yr yield climbed up from 3.61% to 4.14%.

Next FOMC meeting will be held in January 27th.

2025/11/28 - BOK keeps rate steady, possible end of easing cycle

Ushuaia_Dreams — Sat, 29 Nov 2025 21:50:57 +0900

Korea

- BoK kept its benchmark interest rate (2.50%) unchanged at the November meeting.
- Forecast for growth and inflation rate has been revised upwards. 2026 growth outlook to 1.8% from 1.6% projected in August. Reflecting strong exports and recovery in private consumption.
- Market expectations for additional rate cuts have weakened severely and forward guidance also has shifted to a more hawkish stance. The number of members who voted for future rate cuts has been reduced every meeting since the last meeting.
- Much of the improvement in the growth outlook is driven by gains in semiconductors and IT, and if those sectors were stripped out, the underlying growth rate would be closer to about 1.4%. That suggests lingering risks related to the negative output gap, he said, explaining the stance of board members who remained open to another cut.

- Washington set a tariff rate of 15% on imports from Korea. While tariffs remain higher than they were before Donald Trump began his second term as president, the resolution of the talks cleared away some uncertainty for exporters. The deal also includes a provision for Korean firms to invest $350 billion in US strategic sectors.
- Korean companies continue to invest abroad, and retail investors’ appetite for US stocks remains strong. Both factors contribute to steady demand for dollars, heightening volatility in the foreign exchange market.
- Housing also remains a key constraint on further easing. The BoK has repeatedly flagged financial stability concerns stemming from elevated household debt. Seoul apartment prices advanced for a 42nd consecutive week as of Nov. 17, despite three rounds of government measures meant to cool the market, including tighter mortgage limits, since President Lee Jae Myung took office in June.

Developed Market Government Debt

- Bond Investors Are Driving Governments Into Short-Term Debt

- UK and Japan are responding to investor demand to boost short-term borrowing, a shift in strategy that offers

governments lower interest payments but exposes them to potentially costly rates swings at the time of debt rollovers.

- The US is relying more on bills to fund its federal deficit, and countries such as Australia have floated similar policies. Globally, the average maturity of government bonds has fallen to the lowest since 2014.

- In both countries, central banks that spent years buying up bonds to boost the economy are withdrawing their support, reducing demand for longer-term debt and hiking government borrowing costs. With debt levels already high, policymakers are turning to shorter-term notes that come with lower yields but need to be rolled over more frequently — possibly into the teeth of higher interest rates.

- Rates might move higher and interest bill might suddenly increase in case of short term Government Bond roll-overs.

- That’s making short-term borrowing much more attractive to governments. Gilts with maturities of fewer than seven years are expected to make up 44% of new issuance in the current UK fiscal year, a nearly 20 percentage point increase compared to 2015-16. In Japan, around 60% of new issuance would come from bonds maturing in five years or less this fiscal year, compared to 56% in fiscal 2015.

Average Maturity of Government Debts

Operation Twist

The strategic increase in short-term Treasury issuance can complement an Operation Twist, type policy by expanding the supply of bills, which absorbs front-end demand and gives the Fed more flexibility to reduce its short-term holdings while directing its buying power toward the long end of the curve. This shift in issuance effectively reduces long-term supply relative to demand, enhancing the Fed’s ability to lower long-term yields—supporting cheaper borrowing costs for households and corporates. By keeping long rates anchored while funding needs are met through bills, policymakers can create conditions that encourage future investment and economic activity, thereby improving the outlook for an eventual cyclical recovery.

Operation Twist was used most famously by the Federal Reserve in 1961 and again in 2011–2012.
In 2011, during the post-Global Financial Crisis recovery, the Fed wanted to support the economy by lowering long-term borrowing costs—especially for mortgages and corporate financing- without expanding its balance sheet, which was politically sensitive at the time. To do this, the Fed sold about $400 billion of short-term Treasuries and simultaneously bought the same amount of long-term Treasuries, effectively pushing long-term yields lower while allowing short-term yields to rise or stay stable. Treasury issuance strategy also played a role: the U.S. Treasury maintained heavy bill issuance, which supplied the front end of the curve with enough liquidity to absorb demand while limiting long-end issuance, reinforcing the Fed’s effort to depress long-term yields. The combined effect helped stimulate housing, investment, and overall economic activity during a period of weak recovery.

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USD/KRW exchange rate: 1,467.62원

USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.18엔

USD/CNH exchange rate: 7.0721위안

EUR/USD echange rate: 1.1596달러

CNY/KRW exchange rate: 207.43원

DXY: 99.46

US Treasury 30Y yield: 4.671%

US Treasury 10Y yield: 4.019%

US Treasury 2Y yield: 3.491%

KTB 30Y yield: 3.244%

KTB 10Y yield: 3.307%

KTB 3Y yield: 2.901%

Where in What Form Shall we meet again, Whanki Kim

2025/11/20 - Rising possibility for FED Rate Cut and 21 trilltion JPY stimulus package

Ushuaia_Dreams — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 21:53:34 +0900

United States

After the 25bp cut last month, and consecutive hawkish comments from FED officials dollar was gaining and no additional cut in December seemed to be the market consensus. However, things changed after the New York FED president John Williams spoke to the public about interest rates could fall without putting the Fed's inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market.

"I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive...Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,

Korea

Surging KTB yields in all tenors. Market is pricing in no additional rate cuts in the future due to financial instability. Volatile USD/KRW rate reaching nearly 1,480won and persistent rally in the housing market makes BOK hard to deliver a rate cut. Moreover, the domestic economy is led by strong export figures from semiconductor industires. Followed by supplementary budget effects and consumable cash handouts helping boost the locl economy in 3Q in the short term. Also BOK governer Lee interviewed for Bloomberg TV metioning an pivot in the policy rate trajectory.

Japan

Japan's PM Takaichi's government has announced economic stimulus package of 117 billion USD supplementary budget for this year to fund for the massive stimulus package.Most of which will be financed through new debt issuance. The 21.3 trillion yen general account spending undersocres Takaichi's agressive fiscal stance amid heightened concerns over Japan's already weak fiscal conditions. This package was aimed to cushioning households from high inflation and spurring economic growth.. Most of the spending will be focuses on heightened cost of living. Government forecasts this move will boost the real GDP growth by annual 1.4% rate.

The stimulus package includes 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts and 8.9 trillion yen to ease living costs, such as cash handouts of 20,000 yen per child and subsidies for electricity and gas bills. Another 6.4 trillion yen will fund strategic investments in sectors like shipbuilding, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

In an apparent effort to address concerns over recent rises in super-long yields, Japan plans to increase scheduled sales of short- and medium-term bonds with no increase in issuance of long- and super-long bonds. The government is aiming for parliamentary passage of the extra budget by the end of next month.

Fiscal expansion of the newly eleted PM is severly impacting JGB yields and USD/JPY rate. The next BOJ meeting will be held on Dec. 18th and market is pricing in a rate hike of around 55%. It will be interesting to see whether BOJ will be able to carry out a rate hike with Takaichi running the government.

Recent slide in the fx rate due to hawkish comments from BOJ

JGB Bear Steepening all day

China

Chian's Loan Prime Rate for 1 year stands at 3.00% which is mainly used for individual loans. PBOC kept 5 Year LPR unchanged at 3.50% which is usually used for 5 year housing mortgages.

Whanki Kim

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USD/KRW exchange rate: 1,469.14원

USD/JPY exchange rate: 157.71엔

USD/CNH exchange rate: 7.1191위안

EUR/USD echange rate: 1.1508달러

CNY/KRW exchange rate: 206.51원

DXY: 100.35

US Treasury 30Y yield: 4.757%

US Treasury 10Y yield: 4.143%

US Treasury 2Y yield: 3.613%

KTB 30Y yield: 3.244%

KTB 10Y yield: 3.307%

KTB 3Y yield: 2.901%

2025/10/24 - U.S September CPI data release

Ushuaia_Dreams — Sat, 25 Oct 2025 23:01:09 +0900

- United States CPI data for September was released amid federal government shutdown going on
- Surge in the cost of gasoline was partially offset by a sharp moderation in rents
- But tariffs on imports continued to raise prices for apparel, appliances, furniture and bedding, and sporting goods.
- CPI data was published despite an economic data blackout caused by the U.S. government shutdown in order to help the Social Security Administration calculate its 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for millions of retirees and other benefits recipients, who will get a 2.8% increase

- Standoff over funding between Republicans and Democrats in Congress could dent economic growth in the fourth quarter, but much of the lost output would be recovered when normal operations resume.

CPI (MoM)

CPI (YoY)

- I expect the FED to deliver a 25bp cut next week
- Sep. Inflation data recorded 3.0% which is 10bp up from last month but below the market consensus which was 3.1%
- This gave the FED more room for easing due to cooling on inflation. Also gives the more comfortability to take actions to sluggish labor market
- FOMC will be held next week at Oct.30th, December and next year January.

- BOJ meeting will also be held next week following FOMC. I see a 25bp hike coming. Due to the weak coalition with LDP-Ishin, Dakaichi won't have the luxury to carry out drastic expansionary policies.
- The market doesn't expect a hike this meeting. So we will have to see. Yen is bearish, AGAIN levelling above 150yen.

- BOK kept it's bank rate steady for three consecutive times this week due to market rally in apartment prices. The chair of BOK addressed on KRW weakening, a quarter due to dollar strengthening and three quarters deriving from uncertainty with U.S trade deals. Fortunately, market is expecting a negotiation to be announced at APEC next week.
- I don't see a lower level of USD/KRW in the mid-term. Current KRW rate standing at 1,436won, it will slide a bit around 10-20won after investment pledge and trade deal is announced. But I beleive this government's ultimate goal is to reach KOSPI level of 5,000pts.
- This is what LJM has been talking about before he was elected, and like Trump I feel that he is using KOSPI index as an trohpy for the economics part. Also accounting that housing mortgage limit is super tight, KRW will depreciate to sustain the rally in KOSPI. So, bearish for few more months holding the level of 1,430won.

Whanki Kim

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USD/KRW exchange rate: 1,438.97원

USD/JPY exchange rate: 152.87엔

USD/CNY exchange rate: 7.1216위안

EUR/USD echange rate: 1.1626달러

CNY/KRW exchange rate: 202.06원

DXY: 98.95

US Treasury 30Y yield: 4.586%

US Treasury 10Y yield: 3.997%

US Treasury 2Y yield: 3.484%

KTB 30Y yield: 2.807%

KTB 10Y yield: 2.910%

KTB 3Y yield: 2.580%

[매크로] 주요 경제 지표 해설

Ushuaia_Dreams — Mon, 30 Jun 2025 19:49:39 +0900

미국 ISM 제조업과 비제조업 지수

- 월간 경제지표 중 가장 먼저 발표되는 지표로 고용보고서보다 먼저 발표됨

- 전체지수 절대 수준 및 변동 추이: 지수의 전환점은 경제활동의 둔화와 가속 시사

- 물가(제조업자들에 의해 지불된 가격) 변화: 인플레의 가속과 둔화를 보여줌

- ISM 제조업지수 구성항목(5개) : 신규수주, 생산, 고용, 물품인도, 재고

- ISM 비제조업지수 구성항목(5개) : 업황, 신규수주, 고용, 물품인도지수

- ISM 제조업지수 내의 물가 항목은 제조업자들에 의해 지불된 가격을 의미하며 인플레의 가속과 둔화를 보여준다

미국 고용보고서

- 고용보고서는 월간 경제활동을 나타내는 지표 중 가장 시의성이 있고 광범위한 정보를 보여주는 지표

- 고용보고서는 2개의 개별 서베이 결과를 합한 것 으로 1) 가계 서베이: 실업률 산출 2) 사업체 서베이: 비농업부문의 고용, 주당 평균 노동시간, 시간당 평균임금

- 조사시점은 매월 12일이 포함되는 주를 기준으로 함

미국 소비심리(소비자 신뢰지수 vs. 미시간 소비심리)

- 소비자 신뢰지수: 현재 상황 평가지수와 기대지수로 나뉨(기대지수가 60% 비중) 일자리, 사업여건, 소득, 자동차 및 주택 구입 계획에 대한 설문

- 미시건 소비심리지수: 현재와 미래 개인 금융 상황 및 내구재 구입조건, 내년 및 5년 후의 국내 경기 상황 등에 대해 설문

- 소비자 신뢰지수는 고용 경기, 미시건 소비심리지수 소비지표에 관련성 높아

미국 소매판매(개인소비와 비교)

- 변동성 크기 때문에 3개월 이동평균으로 추세를 보는 것이 바람직

- 통상 자동차를 제외하고 봄(자동차 판매의 월간 변동폭이 크기 때문)

- 가솔린과 식품 항목은 주로 소비 수요보다는 물가 변동의 결과로 나타남

- 서비스 부문(개인소비의 55% 차지) 미포함

한국 수출입 동향

- 한국 수출은 세계적으로 가장 먼저 발표되는 실물지표 중 하나

- 한국 수출의 품목별, 지역별 다변화로 세계 경기 흐름을 잘 나타내는 지표

- 전체 수출과 일시적 요인을 제외한 선박 제외 일평균 수출을 동시에 파악 필요

- 20일간 수출입 동향을 발표하는 속보치를 통해 사전에 수출 경기 흐름 추정

- 품목별 수출을 통해 산업 경기 사전에 전망. 화장품, 헬스케어 등이 대표적

미국 소비자물가지수(CPI)

- 예측력이 높은 반면 실적치와 기대치가 크게 다르면 시장은 민감하게 반응

- CPI는 주로 음식료와 에너지 가격의 변동에 커다란 영향을 받기 때문에 이들을 제외한 코어 CPI를 더 중시

- 도시지역 소비자(전체의 80%)들이 구매하는 재화와 서비스의 고정된 바스켓에 대해 지불하는 가격의 시간에 대한 평균적인 변화를 특정제조업과 비제조업 지수