2024/12/20 - BOJ holds rates at 0.25%

BOJ Governor Ueda's comments at news conference

링크: https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/bojs-rate-hike-debate-shifts-when-how-high-2024-12-18/ 

링크: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-governor-uedas-comments-news-064136802.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall  

 

- BOJ sees scope to hike short-term rates at least to around 1% without cooling growth

- BOJ staff estimation shows that Japan's inflation-adjusted real neutral interest rate to be in a range of around -1% to +0.5%. Meaning if inflation were to hit 2%, the BOJ can hike rates at least to around 1% without cooling growth

- BOJ kept it's rate unchanged at the end of its meeting on Thursday

- Market expected BOJ to hold off on raising rates 

- BOJ exited a decade-long radical stimulus programme in March and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July

- What will be the neutral rate for BOJ remains a question to be answered. Hiking too quickly will cool down the economy and market reaction will be uncertain

- Ueda speaks "Domestic data has proven that Japan's economy is moving in line with our forecast. But we need just one more data to check before raising short-term policy rates. It's the sustainability of wage increases therefore we have to wait till next March wage negotiation."

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- Hawkish and Dovish monetary policy decisions: Hawkish policy is designed to control inflation, which typically requires high interest rates. Dovish policy aims to stimulate economic growth through the implementation of low interest rates. Simply speaking, hawks want keep interest rates high whereas doves want it low.

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propping up: 특정 수치를 지켜내다, 지지하다

ramp up: 증가하다, 오르다

contractionary <-> expansionary

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USD/KRW exchange rate: 1,450.99원

USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.84엔

CNY/KRW exchange rate: 198.55원

 

US Treasury 30Y yield: 4.731%

US Treasury 10Y yield: 4.550%

US Treasury 2Y yield: 4.298%

 

KTB 30Y yield: 2.717%

KTB 10Y yield: 2.868%

KTB 2Y yield: 2.731%

wage negotiation in Japan, March